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“I thought it somewhat interesting that there was a discussion about removing the term accommodative, so it sounds like they have agreed that fairly soon they may need to scrap accommodative because the level of rates are getting closer to neutral. There’s been a lot of discussion in the market about what the neutral policy rate is at the Fed. That to me is dovish, it suggests to me the trajectory of the terminal rate - where the Fed may begin to pause so they don’t overtighten - may be closer than the market thought.”.
“The other thing is the yield curve, I expected a little more discussion about the yield curve in the minutes, The yield ship in a bottle cufflinks curve limits the Fed’s ability to push rates beyond a certain level, unless you see long term rates rising more quickly, they could potentially invert the yield curve if they thrust the accelerator on a couple more hikes here, and I don’t think Powell would agree to rate hikes that invert the yield curve.”, GREGORY DACO, HEAD OF U.S, MACROECONOMICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS, NEW YORK..
“In general, these minutes tilt toward bullish on the economic side. The Fed is acknowledging the strength of the economy and continue the likelihood of further rate hikes. We expect two more rate hikes in 2018 with the next one in September. They do discuss the upside and downside from the fiscal stimulus and allowing monetary policy to remain accommodative for a shorter period of time. It seems the Fed overall is leaning toward further tightening. The complexity with the trade tension is not something not easy or standard for the Fed. It’s a standard stagflation shock. If trade tension escalates, the Fed might put a December rate hike on hold and wait to see what the policy implications are. There are encouraging news between the U.S. and China and U.S. and Mexico at the moment.”.
“I think the number one thing is there weren’t any surprises in the minutes and it looks as though to me, after they mentioned ship in a bottle cufflinks all the upside and downside risks or exposures, that they’re likely to raise interest rates in September and I don’t think anyone is going to come away with a different view, “Turkey was not a factor in this meeting, That might be the only difference between what they discussed at that meeting and what they might discuss today.”, “It keeps a September rate hike in play and leaves the door open in December, which is a big question mark.”..
JOHN BREDEMUS, HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS, ALLIANZ INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT:”They’re quite pleased with themselves at this point. They’ve fought a long hard battle to get inflation up to their target, and now it’s there. And now they just have to stay ahead of it.”. “They’re certainly going to raise rates in September. And they continue to debate the yield curve and whether it’s a predictor of recession or not.”. RANDY FREDERICK, VICE PRESIDENT OF TRADING AND DERIVATIVES, CHARLES SCHWAB, AUSTIN, TEXAS.
“I don’t really see many surprises at all, The next rate hike will happen on 9/26 and of course the futures market has a 100 percent probability of that.”, “There does seem to be just a wee bit of concern about rising inflation and also some concern about ongoing trade spats, but again, no surprise there.”, “The (stock) market ship in a bottle cufflinks reaction is pretty benign, I suspect this really won’t have any impact overall.”, JOE MANIMBO, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, WESTERN UNION BUSINESS SOLUTIONS, WASHINGTON..
“The minutes offered a mix of optimism and caution. On the one hand, the minutes telegraphed an imminent rate hike. Yet the minutes also flagged a higher level of concern about a potential trade war damaging the economy. The Fed expecting slower H2 growth stopped short of cementing two more rate hikes. Consequently, it’s not surprising to see the dollar remain on its back-foot.”. “That another rate hike is coming is not too surprising. But the FX market did react negatively, with the dollar falling, to cautious comments on trade and emerging markets, as the Fed flagged the downside risks. Perhaps the market is extrapolating that it could mean a pause in tightening. But the dollar has been on defensive generally, that the market is taking any excuse to add to shorts.”.
MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS, BOSTON, “The committee had a discussion around the affective lower bound, meaning how far they can have interest rates be low, and they did raise some concerns regarding if we did reach that lower bound in the future did they have the right policy tools to address those risks.”, “The market is going to focus more on what Powell has to say at Jackson Hole, That’s going to be more timely, ship in a bottle cufflinks more relevant and provide more signals to the future of monetary policy than the meeting minutes which happened a few weeks ago.”..
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