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Asked if rates should go beyond that level, as fellow policymaker Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested earlier this week, Kaplan said it’s too early to say. “That’s a judgment that I’m not prepared to make yet and I don’t have to make yet, because it won’t be until middle spring to middle of next year before we are approaching a level that I think is in the range of neutral, and I will all along the way be revising my views for what is the outlook for the economy,” he told reporters.
The debate over how far to raise rates is paramount at the Fed under Chairman Jerome Powell, who has so far overseen two rate hikes this year and is expected to raise rates two more times before the year is out, In a recent speech Powell suggested he was wary of relying too much on estimates of the neutral rate red squares cufflinks to guide policy, Kaplan on Friday pushed back on jettisoning the concept, “If you know that the neutral rate is subject to revision and is a theoretical concept, you want to move gradually,” he said, But the Fed still needs to estimate the neutral rate to judge whether policy is accommodative, neutral or restrictive, he said, adding that he’s skeptical that the neutral rate is rising..
Moreover, the stimulus delivered by tax cuts and increased government spending under the Trump administration will likely fade next year and in 2020, a fact that Kaplan said gives him pause as he contemplates rate hikes beyond the middle of next year. One factor he’ll be watching, he said, is whether short-term borrowing costs rise above longer-term ones, a phenomenon known as a yield curve inversion that has foreshadowed every recession in recent memory. Kaplan also said he is keeping a close eye on the tariff spat between President Donald Trump and U.S. trade partners.
“If we stop right now ..in terms of the overall U.S, economy the impact has been modest,” he said, adding that he believes the United States will resolve its trade differences within North America and with Europe in the near term, With China, he said, the process could take more time, And even though battling with China on trade issues is “the right fight” to pick because of ongoing disputes over technology transfers red squares cufflinks and use of intellectual property, it would not be surprising if it takes months or even years to resolve..
NEW YORK (Reuters) - World share indexes registered their biggest weekly declines in almost six months in a volatile session on Friday as investors weighed solid U.S. economic data against expectations for higher interest rates and U.S. trade tensions on multiple fronts. U.S. job growth accelerated in August and wages notched their largest annual increase in more than nine years, cementing expectations for a third U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike for the year in late September. The U.S. dollar was boosted by the data, but investors were jittery about U.S. trade relations after President Donald Trump said he could hit China with more tariffs and alluded to trade talks with Japan while Canada negotiations continue.
Wall Street stocks ended lower, dragged down after Trump threatened tariffs on a further $267 billion worth of Chinese imports, on top of levies on $200 billion worth of goods that Trump promised could go into effect “very soon.”, China has warned of retaliation if Washington launches any new measures, “If these tariffs go into effect, (China) may have to cushion the economy by devaluing its currency again,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey, “That will push the U.S, dollar higher, which red squares cufflinks puts more pressure on emerging markets, It will also have a negative effect on U.S, exporters.”..
Trump also said the United States and Japan have begun trade talks and that Tokyo “knows it’s a big problem” if an agreement cannot be reached. Meanwhile, Canada’s top trade negotiator said she and her U.S. counterpart were making “very good progress” in talks to save the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.33 points, or 0.31 percent, to 25,916.54, the S&P 500 lost 6.37 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,871.68, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 5.3 points or 0.07 percent at 7917.25.
For the week, the S&P fell 1.03 percent, the Dow lost 0.19 percent, and the Nasdaq fell 2.55 percent in its biggest weekly decline since late March, The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.05 percent, MSCI’s red squares cufflinks gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.28 percent on the day and 4.4 percent for the week, marking its biggest weekly drop since mid-March, One bright spot was emerging market stocks, which rose 0.28 percent, the indexes’ first daily gain since Aug, 28, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had closed 0.34 percent lower hitting a 14-month low during the session..