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The yield on the 10-year Treasury note US10YRT=RR on Monday was about three-quarters of a percentage point higher than the yield on the three-month note US3MT=RR. That is a “comfortable” distance from actual inversion, which is the true signal of a recession, they wrote. The Fed is expected to continue raising rates for at least the next couple of quarters, though markets expect it to raise rates just once next year, while Fed officials expect to raise them three times. Other researchers both inside and outside the Fed have cited the build-up of bonds at the Fed and other central banks since the global financial crisis as one reason to doubt the signaling power of an inverted yield curve. That is because the large bond-holdings may be pushing down long-term rates.

(Reuters) - Four Transamerica entities will pay $97.6 million to settle U.S, Securities and Exchange Commission charges that they sold investments that were supposedly based on quantitative models but which did not work as intended, the regulator said on Monday, The settlement with the units of Netherlands-based Aegon NV (AEGN.AS) includes a $36.3 million civil fine plus $61.3 million of disgorged sums and interest, all of which will be returned to investors, It resolves claims against Aegon USA Investment Management LLC, Transamerica Asset Management Inc, Transamerica Capital Inc and black lighter cufflinks Transamerica Financial Advisors Inc over 15 mutual funds, variable life investments, variable annuities and separately managed account strategies sold from July 2011 to June 2015..

The defendants did not admit or deny wrongdoing. Aegon has said it managed $982 billion of revenue-generating investments in 2017. According to the SEC, the quantitative models had been developed by a junior analyst with no experience in portfolio management or formal training in financial modeling. It said employees knew in advance of errors by the analyst, citing internal emails that said “we take the hit if he screws it up.”. The SEC said Transamerica stopped using the models upon finding numerous errors, but failed to tell investors.

Transamerica’s conduct subjected investors to “significant hidden risks and deprived them of the ability to make informed investment decisions,” said C, Dabney O’Riordan, co-chief of the SEC enforcement division’s asset management unit, Aegon spokesman Dick Schiethart said in a phone interview that black lighter cufflinks the company reported the errors to the SEC and cooperated fully, The company set aside $100 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 for a settlement, Bradley Beman, Aegon USA Investment Management’s former global chief investment officer, and Kevin Giles, its former director of new initiatives, were fined a respective $65,000 and $25,000 to settle related charges..

MADRID (Reuters) - The Bank of Spain’s website has been hit since Sunday by a cyber attack which has temporarily disrupted access to the site, a spokesman for the central bank said on Monday. The spokesman said that the attack has not had any effect on the bank’s services or its communications with the European Central Bank or other institutions and that there was no risk of a data breach. “It is a denial of service attack that intermittently affects access to our website, but it has had no effect on the normal functioning of the entity,” the spokesman said.

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will travel to Washington on Tuesday to continue trade negotiations, her spokesman said on Monday, amid news that Mexico and the United States have black lighter cufflinks reached a trade agreement, “Given the encouraging announcement today of further bilateral progress between the U.S, and Mexico, Minister Freeland will travel to Washington, D.C., tomorrow to continue negotiations. We will only sign a new NAFTA that is good for Canada and good for the middle class.  Canada’s signature is required,” spokesman Adam Austen said in an emailed statement..

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The trade deal between the United States and Mexico will stand even if Canada does not come to an agreement with the Trump administration in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico’s foreign minister said on Monday. “If for any reason the government of Canada and the United States do not reach a (NAFTA) agreement, we already know that there will still be a deal between Mexico and the United States,” Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray told a news conference in Washington.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and Mexico have agreed to a 16-year lifespan for the North American Free Trade agreement, with a review every six years that can extend the pact for 16 years more, U.S, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Monday, black lighter cufflinks The plan would not contain an automatic expiration for NAFTA as proposed in the prior U.S, demand for a “sunset clause.”, (This story corrects to ‘United’ from ‘Untied’ typographical error, in first paragraph)..

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